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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2015 Mar 08 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
08 Mar 2015	144	016
09 Mar 2015	147	018
10 Mar 2015	150	018

Bulletin

NOAA 2297 produced several C-class flares and one M-class event, an M9.2 flare peaking at 22:22UT (07 March). An associated type II radio burst (shock speed of 704 km/s) was observed, while the proton flux remained at nominal levels. The related partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first seen by CACTus at 22:24UT, had a width of about 230 degrees and a plane-of-the-sky speed of 672 km/s. The bulk of the CME is directed to the east and south of the ecliptic, however a glancing blow of the CME impacting on 10 March around noon (+/- 12 hours) can currently not be excluded. Minimal geomagnetic effects are expected. NOAA 2297 is a compact and magnetically complex region that has still all the potential to produce strong flares over the next few days. Associated CMEs may become more geo- effective as the region rotates further onto the disk. M-class flaring is expected, with a good chance on an X-class flare. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed. Solar wind speed has slightly increased over the period, being mostly between 500 and 600 km/s. Bz oscillated between -6 and +7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from the Sun. A negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (CH) will reach the central meridian on 09 March. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, under the continued influence of the high speed stream from an extended coronal hole.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 022, na základě 21 stanic.

Solární indexy za 07 Mar 2015

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	022
Odhadovaný Ap	024
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	012 - Na základě 21 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

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