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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Mar 07 1230 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
07 Mar 2021	078	011
08 Mar 2021	078	010
09 Mar 2021	078	011

Bulletin

While NOAA region 2807 has decayed to a plage, region 2806 has shown flux emergence and is now again a beta region. The Sun did not produce any C flares during the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 20%, especially from region 2806.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. Mostly nominal levels are expected on March 7, while a return to moderate levels is possible on March 8. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence returned to nominal levels in the past 24 hours. Nominal levels are expected in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 485 km/s and 600 km/s, with current values around 500 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 2 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to decrease gradually on March 8.

Quiet to unsettled conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on March 7 and 8, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) on March 7. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on March 9, with a chance for active intervals.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 021, na základě 23 stanic.

Solární indexy za 06 Mar 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	///
10cm sluneční tok	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	017
Odhadovaný Ap	018
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	005 - Na základě 31 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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