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Denní bulletin o sluneční a geomagnetické aktivitě ze SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Oct 12 1231 UTC

SIDC Předpověď

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm tok	Ap
12 Oct 2021	089	037
13 Oct 2021	089	029
14 Oct 2021	089	024

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, with a slight chance for an M flare from NOAA 2882.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

DSCOVR registered a shock in the solar wind around 01:45 UT on October 12. This probably marks the arrival of the ICME associated with the October 9 halo CME. The solar wind speed jumped from about 365 to 490 km/s with current values around 445 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field jumped from about 5.5 to 14.5 nT with current values around 11 nT. Bz has been below -5 nT most of the time since 20h UT on October 11, with a minimum of -16 nT and current values of -10 nT. A high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth on October 12. The enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through October 12 and 13.

Quiet to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 1 and 6) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on October 12 and 13, with a chance for moderate storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6) on October 12. A gradual return to quiet to unsettled levels (K Dourbes < 4) is expected on October 14.

Dnešní odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn (ISN): 016, na základě 14 stanic.

Solární indexy za 11 Oct 2021

Wolfovo číslo Catania	041
10cm sluneční tok	089
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	///
Odhadovaný Ap	022
Odhadovaný mezinárodní počet slunečních skvrn	028 - Na základě 24 stanic

Souhrn významných událostí

Poskytuje Centrum pro analýzu dat o solárních vlivech© - SIDC - Zpracováno SpaceWeatherLive

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