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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Jan 28 1223 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
28 Jan 2015	168	015
29 Jan 2015	175	018
30 Jan 2015	180	018

Bulletin

Four C- and one M-class flare were observed over the period. The strongest event was an M1.4 flare peaking at 04:41 UT in NOAA 2268. Currently available data and imagery suggest no CME was associated to this flare. NOAA 2268 still has mixed magnetic polarities in its trailing portion. Old active region NOAA 2257 is rounding the east limb. This is a complex group, but produced only one minor C-class flare. No earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The x-ray background flux was mostly above the C1-level. A 20 degree long filament near the solar equator is at W55 and thus in a geoeffective position in case of eruption. Further M-class flaring is expected. Solar wind varied mostly between 440 and 500 km/s, with a peak of about 530 km/s around 03:00UT. Bz was mildly positive during the period, with negative excursions between 19:00UT and 22:00UT (-5 nT) and again between 04:00 and 08:00UT (-7 nT). Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled with locally (Dourbes) some active episodes shortly after midnight.The solar wind is expected to remain disturbed, with further influences from the CH HSS and a possible glancing blow on 30 January from the 24 January CME. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 107, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 27 Jan 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	097 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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