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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2019 Mar 16 1236 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
16 Mar 2019	070	015
17 Mar 2019	069	022
18 Mar 2019	069	008

Bulletin

X-ray flux remained below B level. With a spotless disk, again X-ray flux is expected to remain below C level.

No new Earth directed CME's have been detected in coronagraph data.

The Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind conditions continued to reflect the influence of the coronal hole, with Solar wind speed increasing but not reaching above current values of around 430 km/s. Total magnetic field reached a peak of just over 8nT late yesterday before decreasing steadily to current values between 5-6nT. Bz was variable in general but recently negative with values down below -5nT. The magnetic field phi angle was stable in the negative sector. Solar wind conditions will remain slightly enhanced with wind speed likely to rise somewhat further under the influence of the equatorial coronal hole, though speeds should start to decrease over the next 24 hours. Further slow transient perturbations are also possible in the next 24 hours due to the March 12 CME. Late March 18, early March 19 we are expected to see the influence of the equatorial positive polarity coronal hole that passed central meridian March 14/15.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3 and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a possibility for active periods under enhanced solar speed speed conditions, possibly combined with some CME transients. Afterwards, geomagnetic conditions are expected to become quiet until the high speed stream expected late March 18, early March 19.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 000, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 15 Mar 2019

Wolf-Zahl Catania	000
10cm Solarflux	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	009
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	000 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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