Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 02 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 772 (S17E23) continues to show a modest amount of magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a good chance of C-class activity from Region 772.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through 05 June.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jun 093
  Predicted   03 Jun-05 Jun  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        02 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jun  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun  005/015-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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