Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1117 (N22W28)
produced a C1.2/Sf at 27/1703Z. The remaining regions were quiet and
unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region
1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (28 October). Quiet to unsettled
levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on days two and
three (29-30 October) in response to the CME observed on 26 October.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 088 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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