Viewing archive of Monday, 4 August 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Aug 04 1209 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Aug 2014	152	013
05 Aug 2014	155	007
06 Aug 2014	155	007

Bulletin

Flaring is currently at low C-class level. The largest flare since our last bulletin was reported to occur this morning in NOAA AR 2126 (CAT 27) with peak time 00:53 UT. This region is currently turning over the west limb, however we expect more C-flares with a chance for a low M-class flare, especially from NOAA regions 2130, 2132 and 2134. A small filament erupted in the western hemisphere, just south of the equator on August 3 around 18:09 UT. An associated narrow CME was observed in LASCO at 19:24 UT, but is not earth-directed. Two small disturbances were observed in the solar wind. The first one started on August 3 around 15:00 UT, and is probably related to the arrival of the CME associated with the M1.5 flare on August 1. The second disturbance started today around 06:00 UT and is likely related to a high speed wind stream originating from the coronal hole that passed the central meridian on August 1. In both cases the southward component of the magnetic field did not turn strongly negative and the solar wind speed remained low, resulting in only unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K=3). Active geomagnetic conditions (K=4) are possible today. We expect a return to quiet conditions after that.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 104, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Aug 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	105 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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