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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/2315Z from Region 3738 (S09E58). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul,
10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 07/1409Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1651Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 171 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 010/012-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/04/09 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/04/18 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| April 2026 | 83.6 -2.3 |
| Last 30 days | 92.3 +30.4 |
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