Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0844Z from Region 3842 (S14W35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07
Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 04/2336Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (06 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day
three (08 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 277 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 280/280/270 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 011/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 036/058-021/028-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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