Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 diciembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 355 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0732Z from Region 2242 (S18W57). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23
Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
457 km/s at 21/1847Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 21/1825Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 21/1854Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at
21/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 400 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23
Dec, 24 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Dec 206 Previsto 22 Dec-24 Dec 205/200/185 Media de 90 Días 21 Dec 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 018/022-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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