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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2026 May 05 1243 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
05 May 2026	136	013
06 May 2026	133	009
07 May 2026	130	011

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

The solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the visible solar disk. All but one regions are relatively simply, classified either as magnetic type alpha or beta. SIDC Sunspot Group 853 (NOAA Active Region 4428) currently located at S24W68 and SIDC Sunspot Group 859 (NOAA Active Region 4429) currently located at S04W23 have exhibited some decay and remained inactive. SIDC Sunspot Group 860 (NOAA Active Region 4432) currently located at N12E23 has exhibited rapid developed and is classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. Despite the increase in complexity it has produced only low C-class flaring. The strongest activity registered was a C6.0 flare (SIDC Flare 7614) peaking on May 05 at 05:27 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 851 (NOAA Active Region 4424) from behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and likely isolated M-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been identified in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Vent solaire

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (as measured by ACE at L1) have registered the signature of an ICME arrival starting around 14:55 UTC on May 04. The ICME possibly relates to one of two faint and slow coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in the SOHOS/LASCO C2 field of view around 12:30 UTC and 18:30 UTC on Apr 30. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (B) has reached 11.6 nT and the north-south (Bz) component has registered a minimum of -10.5 nT. The solar wind speed remained below 500 km/s, varying in the range of 378 km/s to 497 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be under a waning influence of the ongoing ICME arrival on May 05 and return towards slow solar wind conditions on May 06. The solar wind conditions might be further perturbed due to a possible high-speed stream arrival late UTC on May 07 or May 08.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours have been predominantly at active to minor storm levels with an isolated moderate storm levels reached between 18:00 and 21:00 UTC on May 04 as indicated by the NOAA planetary Kp index. Locally over Belgium up to minor storm levels were reached. The geomagnetic storms were related to an ICME arrival reaching the Earth around 14:55 UTC on May 04. As of 06:00 UTC on May 05 the geomagnetic conditions have returned back to quiet. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours under a waning influence of the ICME. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for May 06 and up to the UTC evening on May 07. Quiet to active conditions are expected late on May 07 and May 08 with chances for isolated minor storms.

Niveaux de flux de protons

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours over the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 137, sur la base de 10 stations.

Indices solaires pour 04 May 2026

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	162
Flux solaire à 10 cm	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	026
Ap estimé	027
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	132 - Basé sur 17 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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