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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 21 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
21 Feb 2022	095	009
22 Feb 2022	096	011
23 Feb 2022	096	011

Бюлетень

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, mainly from beta region NOAA 2954.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. There is a slight chance that it will exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 470 and 570 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 540 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 3 and 9 nT (with current values around 6 nT), while its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A continuation of these enhanced solar wind conditions (under the influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole) is expected in the next days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 21, 22 and 23, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 049, за даними 08 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 20 Feb 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	013
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	045 - За даними 16 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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