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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Jan 04 1240 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
04 Jan 2025	192	034
05 Jan 2025	185	040
06 Jan 2025	180	025

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours with 1 X-class flare and 5 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 3188) with peak time 22:41 UTC January 03. This was produced by SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3947). This region also produced the 5 M-class flares including an M7.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3195), peaking at 05:18 UTC January 04. SIDC Sunspot Group 356 (NOAA Active Region 3943) grew over the period and produced C-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 363 (NOAA Active Region 3949) also continued to emerge. The remain regions were quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and X-class flares possible.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

太陽風

The interplanetary magnetic field showed a decreasing trend on January 03, reducing from 14 to 7 nT. From 23:30 January 03, the magnetic field then began to increase in strength again with a maximum of 18nT. Bz became mostly negative after 02:00 UTC January 04 with a minimum value of -15 nT. From 23:30 UTC January 03, the solar wind speed also gradually increased from 400 km/s to 550 km/s around 04:00 UTC January 04. This is possibly due to the glancing blow arrival of the CME observed on January 01 and a high-speed stream arrival. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on January 04 and 05 due to the ongoing CME effects and high-speed streams associated with the positive polarity SIDC Coronal Holes 60 and 82, which began to cross the central meridian on December 31 and January 01, respectively.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp 5, local K Bel 4). Unsettled to minor storm conditions are expected for January 04 and 05, due to combined high speed stream and CME effects.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to the high flaring potential, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 349 (NOAA Active region 3936).

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：215，基於07個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 03 Jan 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	169
10厘米太陽通量	200
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
估計地磁Ap指數	009
估計國際太陽黑子數	207 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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