發布時間: 2026 Feb 07 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 07 Feb 2026 | 164 | 022 |
| 08 Feb 2026 | 162 | 016 |
| 09 Feb 2026 | 160 | 007 |
A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Only C-class flaring has been observed in the last 24 hours, since the large SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366) currently located at N13W32, has stopped growing and producing large flares, it still has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The largest flare was a C7.3 flare (SIDC Flare 6938) peaking on February 07 at 08:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 783 (NOAA Active Region 4362) currently located at S17W35. SIDC Sunspot Group 778 (NOAA Active Region 4358) currently located at N17W71, and SIDC Sunspot Group 788 (NOAA Active Region 4371) currently located at S22E18 also have potential for larger flares. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
There are two equatorial coronal holes on the equator and on the western hemisphere: SIDC Coronal Hole 136 and 149 (equatorial coronal holes with a negative polarity). SIDC Coronal Hole 142 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) is also on the west, but at higher latitudes.
The solar wind speed at Earth has decreased to 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field is around 5 nT. In the coming 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected to increase due to the influence of coronal hole-associated high speed streams (from SIDC 149 and probably also 142).
Geomagnetic conditions have reached active periods in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_Bel up to 4), due to the slightly elevated solar wind speeds with a mild negative Bz. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been below the 1000 pfu threshold for the last 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):137,基於11個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | 154 |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 164 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 035 |
| AK Wingst | 018 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 020 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 144 - 基於10個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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