Archiv von Dienstag, 24 Dezember 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Dec 24 1258 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
24 Dec 2013	130	001
25 Dec 2013	132	017
26 Dec 2013	134	019

Bulletin

There were five C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, the large majority being released by NOAA AR 11928. The brightest one was a C8.4 flare from NOAA AR 11936 peaking at 17:28 UT on December 23. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (around 80%) and for M flares around 40%, mainly from NOAA AR 11928 and 11936. There is a slight chance for an X flare. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed decreased from around 310 km/s to around 280 km/s and the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between 1.5 and 4 nT, as observed by ACE. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) and are expected to remain so on December 24 and in the first half of December 25. In the second half of December 25, geomagnetic conditions may become active (K Dourbes = 4) due to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream with estimated velocity between 450 and 500 km/s. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on December 26, as the coronal hole high speed stream effects continue.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 076, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 23 Dec 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	002
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	075 - Basierend auf 09 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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