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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Feb 20 1234 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

No forecast

	10cm Fluss	Ap
20 Feb 2015	125	007
21 Feb 2015	130	013
22 Feb 2015	140	017

Bulletin

Solar activity is gradually increasing to low levels, with two C1 flares originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2286. NOAA ARs 2287, 2288 and 2290 (Catania sunspot groups 88, 87 and 90 respectively) exhibited some growth. The strongest flare was a C1.6 flare, peaking at 10:25 UT on February 20. The C1.1 flare, peaking at 18:06 UT on February 19, was associated with a prominence eruption and a CME (first measurement in LASCO/C2 around 18 UT). The CME is mainly propagating to the southwest (not Earth-directed) and is too slow and too narrow to have any influence on Earth. The solar wind was at nominal levels, with the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field maximally at 6 nT. The solar wind speed is gradually decreasing with current values near 340 km/s. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (K=1 to 3) at the local level (Dourbes), which is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase on February 22 to active levels due the influence of a high speed stream from a positive northern coronal hole.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 046, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 19 Feb 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	010
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	061 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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