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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2017 Aug 04 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 Aug 2017	076	029
05 Aug 2017	076	021
06 Aug 2017	076	007

Bulletin

Beta region NOAA 2670 produced a few low B flares within the past 24 hours. The probability for a C flare within the next 24 hours is estimated at 45%, with a slight chance for an M flare (10%). No earth- directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. DSCOVR registered a jump in both solar wind density and magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) at 9:38 UT on August 3, followed by a gradual rise of both solar wind density (maximum: about 59 particles per cc at 4:15 UT on August 4) and magnitude of the IMF (maximum: about 21 nT at 6:20 UT on August 4), announcing the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream of a large positive coronal hole extending from the north pole to the equatorial region. Around 1h UT on August 4, the IMF changed direction and started pointing away from the Sun. Near the same time, solar wind speed started rising gradually to a maximum of about 715 km/s at 11:20 UT. Current solar wind values are about 650 km/s and the current magnitude of the IMF is about 14 nT. Bt was very variable, in the range from about -17 to 20 nT. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 2 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Under the influence of the aforementioned high speed stream, active to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4 to 5) are possible on August 4 and 5, with a slight chance for moderate geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 6). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels are expected on August 6.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 012, basierend auf 17 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 Aug 2017

Wolf-Zahl Catania	013
10cm Solarflux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	016
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	016
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	013 - Basierend auf 39 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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