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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2020 Dec 30 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Dec 2020	084	007
31 Dec 2020	083	003
01 Jan 2021	083	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels over the past 24 hours. No significant flares have been recorded. NOAA Active Region 2795 (beta) produced a B6.6 flare on Dec 29 21:04 UT with an associated filament eruption, while NOAA AR 2794 (alpha) remained quiet. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a low probability of C-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraphic imagery. The aforementioned filament eruption will be analysed when further data becomes available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained just below the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The electron flux is expected to remain below this level during the next period. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed fluctuated around 500 km/s (DSCOVR and ACE). The total magnetic field strength ranged between 2 and 7 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -7 nT, with an extended period of negative Bz recorded between 23 UT Dec 29 and 04 UT Dec 30. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly directed towards the Sun (phi angle in the negative sector). Over the next 24 hours, the solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced before gradually decreasing to nominal values from Dec 31.

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and local k Dourbes recorded values of 1-3 and 1-2, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels for the next 48 hours with the possibility of further unsettled intervals in response to any prolonged periods of negative Bz.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 027, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Dec 2020

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	084
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	026 - Basierend auf 23 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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