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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2022 Feb 21 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
21 Feb 2022	095	009
22 Feb 2022	096	011
23 Feb 2022	096	011

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 50%, mainly from beta region NOAA 2954.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. There is a slight chance that it will exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 470 and 570 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 540 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 3 and 9 nT (with current values around 6 nT), while its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A continuation of these enhanced solar wind conditions (under the influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole) is expected in the next days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K-BEL = 4) are possible on February 21, 22 and 23, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5).

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 049, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 20 Feb 2022

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	013
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	045 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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