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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Oct 14 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 Oct 2023	147	005
15 Oct 2023	142	008
16 Oct 2023	140	003

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours, with the brightest flare being a C9 today 04:58 UTC from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 87). In total there were only a few C-class flares detected with the yet-unnamed AR at N11E88 producing the largest number of flares. More C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Sonnenwind

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are still affected by the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in 12 Oct. This HSS is consisted of two parts, as can be seen from the rapid increase in SW speed from 400 to 500 km/h yesterday at 21:50 UTC. As a result of this event, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 20 nT to below 5 nT. Its North-South component (Bz) varied between -10 and 20 nT but now ranges between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain under the influence of the HSS for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3) during the last 24 hours, with the exception of active conditions (Kp 4-) yesterday 15:00-18:00 UTC. Locally they were at quiet to unsettled levels (K Bell 0-3) throughout the past 24 hours. They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, both globally and locally.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 114, basierend auf 19 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 Oct 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	108
10cm Solarflux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	015
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	016
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	113 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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