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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2023 Oct 30 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Oct 2023	133	019
31 Oct 2023	135	014
01 Nov 2023	135	005

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with isolated C-class flaring. The strongest activity was an impulsive C7.9 flare, peak time at 13:09 UTC on Oct 29th, produced by active region NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma), which is the most complex region on the visible solar disc and was solely responsible for the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3474 has decayed into plage and NOAA AR 3475 decreased its magnetic complexity to type alpha. Both regions are approaching the west limb. NOAA AR 3472 (beta) and NOAA AR 3473 (beta) have remained silent. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with likely C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Sonnenwind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the ongoing influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity corona hole. The solar wind velocity reached a maximum of 592 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly perturbed with maximum value of 7.2 nT and a minimum Bz of -6.1 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal hole. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over throughout the next 24h and slowly return to background slow solar wind conditions by Nov 1st.

Geomagnetismus

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Oct 30th and Oct 31st with chances for isolated minor storms. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for Nov 1st as the influence of the ongoing high speed stream wanes.

Protonenflusswerte

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours and remain at moderate levels for the upcoming days.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 078, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Oct 2023

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	028
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	030
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	062 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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