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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2024 Oct 15 1231 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 Oct 2024	181	008
16 Oct 2024	175	007
17 Oct 2024	170	017

Solaraktive Regionen und Flares

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 3 M-class flares. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare peaking on October 15 at 02:13 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 283 (NOAA Active Region 3854).There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. The most complex regions are SIDC SGs 281 and 283 (NOAA AR 3852 and 3854) all magnetic type beta-gamma. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a low chance of X-class flares.

Koronaler Massenauswurf

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronale Löcher

A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68) continues to cross the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth/enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 17.

Sonnenwind

The solar wind at the Earth remained mostly slow over the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed was around 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field was around 7nT. The Bz reached a minimum value of -5 nT. A small shock was observed on October 14 at 17:18 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 6 nT to 9 nT, with the Bz component changing from -2 nT to -4 nT. The solar wind speed jumped from 381 km/s to around 403 km/s. The solar wind density at the shock jumped from 2.62 ppcc to around 6.68 ppcc (ACE). Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24h.

Geomagnetismus

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to active (Kp 4- and K Bel 3). Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Protonenflusswerte

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Elektronenflüsse im geostationären Orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 116, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 Oct 2024

Wolf-Zahl Catania	161
10cm Solarflux	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	139 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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