Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 December 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/0028Z from New Region 1628 (N10E65). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at 04/2120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Dec 096
  Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        05 Dec 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  004/005-005/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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