Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0010Z from Region 2014 (S14E06). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 521 km/s at 23/2318Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 159
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  008/008-011/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%05%
Minor storm01%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%15%
Major-severe storm20%40%05%

All times in UTC

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