Viewing archive of Monday, 12 May 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 May 12 1309 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 May 2014	156	013
13 May 2014	157	007
14 May 2014	157	011

Bulletin

Solar activity is low with only few C-class flares reported during last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was C3.4 flare (peaking at 19:16 UT) on May 11. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056). The flare at about 11:10 UT on May 12, originated from the Catania sunspot group 47 (NOAA AR 2060) and was associated with coronal dimming and an EIT wave. These CME on-disc signatures indicate that there was an eruption associated with the flare. From the currently available data it seems that the bulk of the CME mass was oriented southward of the Sun-Earth line. However, coronagraph data are needed to confirm that this CME will not arrive at the Earth. We expect flaring activity on the C-level. The solar wind speed is about 450 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is currently stable having value of about 4 nT. The fast flow from the small and narrow equatorial coronal hole which has reached the central meridian yesterday early morning might arrive, although this is not very probable, in the morning of May 14. The geomagnetic conditions are at the moment quiet to unsettled and expected to remain so in the following 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 11 May 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	108 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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