Viewing archive of Monday, 22 June 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Jun 22 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Jun 2015	136	014
23 Jun 2015	134	026
24 Jun 2015	130	007

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 2367 produced the largest flare of the past 24 h, an M1.1 with peak at 18:20 UT on June 21. This region and NOAA AR 2371 can produce more M-class (and possible larger) flares. The 10 MeV protons have passed the 100 pfu threshold and continue to increase, this is most likely due to the two interplanetary shocks passing the Earth, plus one more on its way (even though recent activity in NOAA 2367 could also have contributed to the increased levels). A shock arrived to ACE at 15:50 UT on June 21, and a second one at 04:52 UT today. They most likely mark the arrival of the June 18 and 19 CMEs, respectively. Only active geomagnetic conditions were caused, as only the shocks, but not the driver (ICMEs) were detected. The CME from June 21 is expected to arrive later today or early tomorrow, increasing geomagnetic conditions up to (possibly) major storm levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 049, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Jun 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	048 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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