Viewing archive of Friday, 7 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
07/1941Z from Region 2396 (S17E02). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (08 Aug) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(09 Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 597 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/1818Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1253Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1851
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 122 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 013/015-015/019-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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