Viewing archive of Monday, 12 October 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Oct 12 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Oct 2015	089	016
13 Oct 2015	093	034
14 Oct 2015	097	027

Bulletin

The 4 sunspot groups currently visible on the solar disk are quiet. An active region (AR) is approaching the east limb and produced the only C-class flare of the period: C3.2 at 22:29UT. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

C-class flares are expected, with a small chance on an M-class flare from the AR just behind the east limb.

Solar wind speed continued its decline to values around 440 km/s until about 07:00UT, when a gradual increase was observed up to its current 500 km/s. Bz oscillated between -7 and +6 nT, with a sustained negative period at around -7nT between 08:00 and 11:00UT. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). Geomagnetic conditions ranged from quiet to unsettled, with a minor storming episode (Kp=5) during the 09-12UT interval. Active episodes were observed at Dourbes shortly before midnight. The high speed wind stream (HSS) from a wide northern coronal hole (CH) is expected to arrive later today and to continue possibly for the next two days.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a good chance on minor geomagnetic storming episodes from the influence of the CH HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 052, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Oct 2015

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	085
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	027 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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