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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emitido: 2014 Jan 17 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Llamarada solar

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Protones solares

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jan 2014	122	003
18 Jan 2014	128	011
19 Jan 2014	125	004

Bulletin

During last 24 hours eight C-class flares were reported and majority of them originated from the active region on the East solar limb. The strongest flare was the C6.2 flare which peaked at 21:39 UT on January 16. The flare originated from the active region on the East solar limb and was most probably associated with partial halo CME. Due to data gap the partial halo CME was first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view only at the height of about 3.5 solar radii, at 23:36 UT on January 16. The CME had angular width of about 190 degrees, projected speed around 500 km/s and was directed somewhat southward of the Sun-Earth line. We expect arrival of the CME, or at least the glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, in the morning of January 20. The Earth is inside a slow solar wind with a speed of about 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 4 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are currently quiet and expected to remain so during following hours. The glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with the partial halo CME first seen in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 09:36 UT on January 14, is expected to arrive at the Earth on January 18. It may cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 054, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jan 2014

Wolf number Catania	095
10cm solar flux	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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