Affichage des archives de jeudi, 29 octobre 2020

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2020 Oct 29 1231 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
29 Oct 2020	088	013
30 Oct 2020	088	007
31 Oct 2020	088	007

Bulletin

A new region emerged to the north east of NOAA AR 2778 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration), it was numbered by NOAA as AR 2779 (beta configuration). Four C-class flares were observed from these ARs, the largest is a (estimated) C4 flare currently ongoing with peak around 11:50 UT (more precise data to be given when the flare ends). More C-class are highly likely and M-class flares can be expected.

Related to C-class flaring activity in the ARs 2778-2779 around 22:00 UT on 28 October, an eruption is visible (dimmings, EIT wave), but no CME has been identified in coronagraph data yet. An update will be given if necessary when more data become available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay at background levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electrons are above the 10^3 pfu threshold, they are expected to decrease over the next 24 hours.

The speed of the solar wind decreased from 500 to 465 km/s in the past 24 hours. The Earth is leaving the influence zone of a high speed stream coming from a positive polarity coronal hole. Bz was never below -5 nT and B reached 5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease in the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were unsettled at planetary levels (Kp = 3) and reached active conditions locally at Dourbes (KDourbes = 4). Mostly unsettled conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 039, sur la base de 09 stations.

Indices solaires pour 28 Oct 2020

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	023
Flux solaire à 10 cm	088
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	014
Ap estimé	015
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	028 - Basé sur 23 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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