Affichage des archives de mardi, 7 novembre 2023

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2023 Nov 07 1235 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
07 Nov 2023	142	019
08 Nov 2023	142	016
09 Nov 2023	142	012

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.6-flare, with peak time 14:02 UTC on November 06, associated with NOAA AR 3474 (beta) which has rotated over the west limb. Most of the flaring activity came from active regions that have rotated over the west limb. There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk and a new yet unnumbered active region has started to emerge near the centre of the disk. The two largest and most magnetically complex regions on the visible disk are NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3477 (beta) which have been stable. All other regions on disk have a simple magnetic field configuration and have not contributed significantly to the flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Éjection de masse coronale

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 07:48 UTC on November 06 shows that it will most likely not impact the Earth.

Vent solaire

In the last 24 hours, the Earth continued to be under the influence of an ICME and the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole. In the last 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 13 nT to 5 nT. The Bz fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of – 8 nT. The solar wind started to increase from 13:00 UTC on November 06 and reached speeds up to 750 km/s (ACE) and remained elevated. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated under the influence of the high-speed stream in the next 24 hours.

Géomagnétisme

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels globally (Kp 5) between 15:00 on November 06 and 03:00 UT on November 07 and minor storm levels locally (K Bel 5). Active to minor storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 elevated above background levels in the last 24 hours but did not cross the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 080, sur la base de 17 stations.

Indices solaires pour 06 Nov 2023

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	077
Flux solaire à 10 cm	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	036
Ap estimé	038
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	074 - Basé sur 25 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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