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Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2025 Jun 10 1239 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
10 Jun 2025	120	017
11 Jun 2025	120	029
12 Jun 2025	120	012

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity remained low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares recorded. A total of six numbered sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk. The largest event was a C5.5 flare (SIDC Flare 4597), which peaked at 10:52 UTC on June 10 and was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 516 (NOAA Active Region 4107), which showed signs of growth and currently exhibits a Beta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Groups 496 (NOAA AR 4111, Alpha, stable) and 513 (NOAA AR 4105, Beta, stable) also contributed with minor C-class flaring activity. The presence of several Beta-type groups suggests that C-class flares are very likely, with a small chance of M-class flares over the next 24 hours.

Éjection de masse coronale

Several narow outflow were observed in the available LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified in data.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 104, a mid-latitude southern coronal hole with positive polarity, is still positioned on the eastern side of the Sun. SIDC Coronal Hole 118, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity, first crossed the central meridian on June 8 and has since moved toward the western limb around longitude 24 degree.

Vent solaire

Solar wind speed remained moderately enhanced over the past 24 hours, ranging between 400 km/s and 530 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was elevated at the beginning of the period, reaching up to 9.0 nT, and then gradually declined and showed values below 5 nT over the last 6 hours. The southward component (Bz) fluctuated throughout the period, reaching a minimum of -7.2 nT early on, and then remained between approximately -4 nT and +4 nT during the last several hours. The phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector. The arrival of high-speed solar wind streams is expected on June 10 and 11, associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 118, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity that crossed the central meridian on June 8 and is now nearing the western limb.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to unsettled both globally and locally throughout the past 24 hours (with NOAA Kp index peaked at 3, and the local K_BEL index reached values up to 3 as well). Over the next 24 hours, active conditions with possible storm-level (K-index up the 6) intervals are expected as Earth begins to experience the influence of the anticipated high-speed solar wind stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 118.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to stay at nominal levels throughout the next 24 hours. No solar energetic particle events were detected, and none are currently anticipated.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold over the past 24 hours. Electron fluxes are expected to stay mostly below the alert threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at normal to moderate levels and is anticipated to persist at those levels throughout the next day.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 115, sur la base de 24 stations.

Indices solaires pour 09 Jun 2025

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	109
Flux solaire à 10 cm	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	018
Ap estimé	019
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	084 - Basé sur 24 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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