Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2026 Jun 15 1230 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity was at low levels. Only low-level C-class activity was observed. Region 4465 (N08W17, Dai/beta) exhibited minor growth, while the three remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Prévisions

Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels over 15-17 Jun, with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with peak values observed at 1,581 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Prévisions

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 15-17 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 17 Jun.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influences of a negative polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength averaged ~4 nT. No significant periods of southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from ~500 km/s to ~425 km/s over the past 24 hours. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector.

Prévisions

The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced on 16-17 Jun due to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 12 Jun, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Prévisions

The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels on 15 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 16 Jun due to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 12 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jun due to waning CME influences and the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.