Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2026 May 01 0030 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity was at low levels with isolated to occasional C-class flaring observed primarily from Region 4420 (N16W69, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), though Region 4424 (N17W35, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C5.1 at 30/0031 UTC. There are six numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 4420 continued to show a slight decline in extent along with fragmentation and spreading of the intermediate spots and an overall decrease in spot count despite some new flux emergence. Region 4424 underwent growth with in the intermediate spots and consolidation in the leading group, developing a mixed polarity gamma configuration. Region 4425 (N05W03, Ekc/beta) showed loss of penumbra in the trailing spots with increased separation and consolidation of the bipoles. Region 4423 (S10W53, Bxo/beta) showed consolidation of its trailing pole with slight spreading between the bipoles. Region 4428 (S24W13, Cro/beta) showed flux emergence in the intermediate area along with consolidation of, and separation between, the leading and trailing regions. New Region 4429 (S04E35, Cro/beta) was numbered this period. Analysis is ongoing following the observation of CME to the southeast first seen in STEREO-A COR2 imagery beginning at 30/1253 UTC and to the south-southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 30/1326 UTC.

Prévisions

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 01-03 May. A slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) also exists, due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 4420 and 4425.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels with a peak of 421 pfu observed at 30/1415 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

Prévisions

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to high levels 01-02 May in response to anticipated negative polarity CH HSS (-CH HSS) influences before returning to low to moderate levels on 03 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels, though a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels or greater exists through 03 May due to the complexity and location of Region 4420.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar wind parameters were enhanced during the period. Solar wind speeds started the period ranging around 350 km/s, before increasing more significantly late in the period to approximately 500 km/s. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased from around 6-8 nT early in the period to a peak near 13-14 nT around 30/1500-1600 UTC before decreasing toward 10 nT late in the period. The North-South component (Bz) was variable with several sustained southward deflections later in the period, deviating as far south as -12 nT at around 30/1930 UTC. A rise in solar wind temperature late in the period, coinciding with the speed increase, is consistent with HSS arrival. The phi angle was predominantly in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation throughout the period.

Prévisions

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 01 May under continued -CH HSS influences. A gradual return to near nominal levels is anticipated on 02 May as HSS influences wane, before a new negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective by late 03 May.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels.

Prévisions

Unsettled to G1 (Minor) conditions are expected through 01 May under continued -CH HSS influences. A return to mostly quiet levels is anticipated on 02 May as HSS influences wane. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 03 May with the anticipated onset of a new negative polarity CH HSS late in the day.