Bulletins prévisionnels de la Météo Spatiale

Publié: 2026 Feb 21 0030 UTC
Préparés par le Département américain du Commerce, la NOAA, le Centre de Prévision de la Météo spatiale et traités par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activité solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4374 (N09W77, Hsx/alpha) continued its approach of the western limb while remaining little changed. Region 4375 (N17W48, Axx/alpha) underwent decay while Region 4376 (N13, L=015) decayed to plage. Region 4377 (N07W16, Bxo/beta) exhibted signs of decay as well and produced a C2.8 flare at 20/0307 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Prévisions

Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with isolated to occasional C-class flares through 23 Feb. Probabilities increase slightly on 23 Feb due to the anticipated return of old active regions to the eastern limb.

Particules énergétiques

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak level of 7,442 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Prévisions

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels through 23 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 23 Feb.

Vent Solaire

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

Solar wind parameters continued to predominantly reflect positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field increased to as high as 15 nT near the end of the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF reached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~450-500 km/s. Phi remained predominantly positive.

Prévisions

A positive polarity CH HSS regime is expected to continue to deminish over the course of 21 Feb with a return to an ambient-like state anticipated for 22 Feb. Enhanced conditions are then expected to return on 23 Feb with a recurrent, negative polarity high speed stream.

Géospatial

Résumé des dernières 24 heures

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Prévisions

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 21 Feb as positive polarity CH HSS conditions wane to background levels. Quiet levels are then anticipated for 22 Feb. Unsettled to active conditions, with a slight chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, are expected on 23 Feb due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects.