Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2026 Jun 09 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity remained at low levels with numerous C-class flares observed from Regions 4456 (N18W67, Esi/beta), 4464 (S12E17, Dsi/beta) and 4465(N09E63, Dsi/beta-gamma). Most of the activity originated from Region 4465 with the largest a C4.5/Sf observed at 09/0423 UTC. There are seven active regions on disk, most of them remained stable or showed some decay in area. Region 4464 indicated some minor enhancements among its intermediate spots. Departed Region 4455 (N15, L=092) also produced some weak C-class activity. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Прогноз

Isolated M-class flares are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares, through 11 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456, 4462 (N16W14, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu at 08/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to moderate-low levels on 11 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 June.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters suggested a slow decline in the wind environment. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 450 km/s to near 400 km/s, while the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength showed a slight oscillation around 5nT. At about 09/0954 UTC, The IMF increased sharply to 10 nT. The Bz component oscillated between -5 nT to +3 nT, and further reached S to -5 nT. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector during the day.

Прогноз

Analysis of the solar wind parameters, along with the suprathermal ions and electrons data from instruments at L1, suggested that the 06 June CME glancing passage near Earth already occurred on 08 June, reducing our confidence in further impacts on the next days. Therefore, background solar wind is expected until 11 June, when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during the past 24 hrs.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 09 June, quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Jun, and active levels on 11 June (due to anticipated -CH HSS effects).