Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2026 Apr 21 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity reached low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5.3 at 21/0602 UTC from newly numbered Region 4421 (S16E70, Hax/alpha). Region 4419 (N14W24, Eho/beta-gamma) exhibited minor growth in its trailer spots, but its leader spot consolidated so the overall area did not change appreciably. Region 4420 (N16E60, Dao/beta) was also numbered and contributed low-level C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for isolated C-class activity on 21-23 Apr, primarily due to the flare potential from Region 4419 and limb activity.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels at 19/1925 UTC with a maximum reading of 1,187 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 21-23 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 21-23 Apr.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters were at nominal/background levels at the beginning of the reporting period then started becoming enhanced at approximately 20/0545 UTC. Total magnetic field (Bt) reached a max of 10 nT at 20/1330 UTC. The north-south component (Bz) had two sustained periods of south deflection, reaching maximums of -8 nT both periods. The wind speed slowly increased from ~415 km/s to a max of ~570 km/s at 20/1430 UTC, where it largely stayed for the remainder of the reporting period. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation (towards the Sun), with isolated oscillations into a positive position.

Прогноз

Weakening enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on 21 Apr as the CH HSS continues to move from its geoeffective position. A return to mostly nominal conditions is expected 22-23 Apr.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic field went from Quiet to G1 (Minor) storming levels due to sustained periods of negative Bz during the ongoing -CH HSS conditions.

Прогноз

Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 21 Apr, with isolated active conditions possible and a slight chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, as HSS effects diminish. Mostly quiet levels are expected, with possible unsettled periods, on 22 Apr as CH HSS influence dissipates, with predominantly quiet levels on 23 Apr.