Обсуждение космического прогноза погоды

Существующий: 2025 Dec 31 1230 UTC
Подготовлено Министерством торговли США, NOAA, Центром прогнозирования космической погоды и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Солнечная активность

Суточный итог

Solar activity was at low levels, with few C-class flares mostly coming from Regions 4324 (N24E11, Dao/beta-gamma) and 4325 (S08E04, Eki/beta-delta), both of which had appreciable magnetic flux emergence and shear. Region 4328 (S13W07, Cro/beta) exhibited growth while Region 4330 (S16, L=272) decayed to plage. All remaining active regions were stable or in slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.

Прогноз

There is a chance (50%) for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares, with a slight chance (20%) for X-class (R3, Strong) flares on 31 Dec-02 Jan, largely due to Regions 4324 and 4325.

Заряженные частицы

Суточный итог

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, measured at geostationary orbit by GOES-19, reached high levels with a peak of 5,612 pfu at 30/1545 UTC, and decreased to moderate levels after 30/1915 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate levels 31-02 Jan as we are anticipated to enter a coronal hole high-speed stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance (10%) of crossing threshold on 31 Dec-02 Jan.

Солнечный ветер

Суточный итог

Solar wind parameters were at background conditions for the first half of the reporting period, becoming slightly enhanced after 30/2235 UTC with the total magnetic field strength (Bt) increasing from an average of 5 nT to an average of 10 nT. The Bz (north-south) component was generally positive (northward), ranging from -5 to 10 nT. Solar wind speed slowly increased over the reporting period from ~400 km/so to ~450 km/s. The phi angle was generally positive (away from the Sun).

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are anticipated to continue enhancing due to influences from several coronal hole high-speed streams through 01 Jan, with a possible sector boundary crossing on 02 Jan. 01 Jan is anticipated to be particularly turbulent due to the potential for a glancing blow from the interaction of CMEs that left the Sun on 28-30 Dec.

Геопространство

Суточный итог

The geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 31 Dec, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storming levels on 01 Jan, and unsettled to active levels on 02 Jan.