Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2026 May 11 0030 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity reached moderate levels following an M5.7/2b flare at 10/1339 UTC, accompanied by Type-II (est. 650-1,736 km/s) and Tenflare (550 sfu) radio emissions, from Region 4436 (N19E55, Dao/beta). The associated partial halo CME, first visible at 10/1348 UTC off the east in LASCO C2 imagery, is being analyzed for a potential Earth-directed component, however, the bulk of ejecta appears to be directed well east of the Sun-Earth line. Region 4432 (N14W56, Ekc/beta-gamma) increased in areal extent and magnetic complexity, and produced nearly all of the C-class flare activity observed this period. The remaining numbered regions were relatively stable and quiet.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels over 11-13 May, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flare.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 11-13 May. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 11-13 May.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

The solar wind environment reflected waning positive polarity CH HSS influences followed by the return of ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength reached 6 nT, while the Bz component remained near neutral. Solar wind speeds underwent a decline from near 460 km/s to near 380 km/s by the end of the period.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly enhanced on 11 and 13 May due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Background conditions are expected to prevail on 12 May.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 and 13 May due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet conditions are likely to prevail on 12 May.