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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2019 May 17 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
17 May 2019	073	021
18 May 2019	072	019
19 May 2019	072	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no flares above B2 level in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours, especially from region 2741, is estimated at 25%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 410 and 475 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 440 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field varied between about 4 and 9 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for extended periods. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible in the next days, with the expected arrival of the May 13 CME.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 4-5) are possible on May 17 and 18, due to the expected arrival of the May 13 CME. A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 19.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 011, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 16 May 2019

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	074
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	014 - Basierend auf 28 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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