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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2019 May 18 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 May 2019	070	015
19 May 2019	070	017
20 May 2019	070	007

Bulletin

The Sun produced no flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR jumped from about 380 to 430 km/s around 1:25 UT on May 18, accompanied by a drop in temperature from about 150000 to 20000 K and a drop in density from about 9 to 2 particles per cc. This could correspond to the arrival of the May 13 CME. The solar wind speed varied between about 360 and 455 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 410 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was predominantly oriented away from the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 3 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Enhanced solar wind conditions are possible on May 18 and 19.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active intervals (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on May 18 and 19, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). A return to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels is expected on May 20.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 012, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 May 2019

Wolf-Zahl Catania	013
10cm Solarflux	072
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	014 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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