Vorhersage Details

Ausgestellt: 2025 Dec 07 1230 UTC
Erstellt von NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center und verarbeitet SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sonnenaktivität

24h Zusammenfassung

Solar activity reached high levels when Region 4299 (N21W06, Dao/beta-delta) produced an M1.1 (R1/Minor) flare at 06/1921 UTC. Shortly after, the region produced an M8.1/2b (R3-strong) flare at 06/2039 UTC. Associated with the M8.1 flare was a 1,100 sfu Tenflare, a 1,143 km/s Type II sweep and a Type IV sweep. Some development was observed around the leader spot of Region 4299, while slight decay was noted among the trailer spots. Region 4296 (S14W11, Eki/beta) and 4294 (S15W30, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest of the visible disk but only produced C-class activity in the past 24 hours. Only minor changes were observed among the other numbered active regions. CME activity was observed from both M-class flares. A slow, Earth-directed CME was observed from the M1.1 and a faster, full-halo, Earth-directed CME was observed from the M8.1 flare. The full-halo CME is expected to overtake the initial eruption was an anticipated arrival time at Earth early to midday on 09 Dec.

Vorhersage

M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 07-09 Dec, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), given past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk.

Energiereiche Teilchen

24h Zusammenfassung

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,140 pfu observed at 06/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit was at slightly enhanced levels.

Vorhersage

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels over 07-09 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated with the ongoing CH HSS. A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 09 Dec due to the eruptive potential of multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Sonnenwind

24h Zusammenfassung

Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-6 nT. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from initial values of about 700 km/s to end-of-period values of about 550 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector.

Vorhersage

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced by the negative polarity coronal hole HSS over 07 Dec. An additional enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec and in to 08 Dec due to glancing effects from a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. Further enhancements are likely early to midday on 09 Dec due to effects from the CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec.

Geospace

24h Zusammenfassung

Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels due to negative polarity coronal hole influences.

Vorhersage

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 07-08 Dec due to the anticipated onset of influence from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely early to midday on 09 Dec due to the anticipated arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec.