Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Dec 09 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Dec 2013	170	009
10 Dec 2013	173	018
11 Dec 2013	173	007

Bulletin

Flaring activity is at the same level as the previous days: the base X-ray radiation curve is situated near the bottom of the C-level. The active region which is contributed the highest probability to flare is NOAA AR 1917. The region in the northern hemisphere which rotates over the east limb (but has no NOAA NR yet) is also in the running to produce C-flares. The shock arrival of yesterday December 8 didn't cause any geomagnetic disturbance. The co-rotating interaction region (arrival on December 7) and the associated fast solar wind dominated the solar wind data. The result was a geomagnetic storm of Kp=6 early December 8. The mass ejection that was associated with the M1.2 flare peaking at 7:29UT on December 7 might cause a glancing blow late today (December 9) or tomorrow (December 10).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	027
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	065 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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