Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 November 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Nov 12 1322 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Nov 2013	164	009
13 Nov 2013	168	017
14 Nov 2013	172	010

Bulletin

Since the CME-less M2.4 flare which peaked at 11:18 UT on November 11, only six C-class flares were reported. We expect M-class flares and possibly but not very probably X-class flares, in particular from the Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) and NOAA AR 1897. The Catania sunspot group 35 (NOAA AR 1890) is situated in the western solar hemisphere and still has the beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field, therefore we maintain the warning condition for a proton event. From the currently available data it seems that the CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 08:48 UT on November 12, is possibly Earth- oriented. This will be confirmed when more data will be available. The solar wind speed is around 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is about 4 nT. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours and active geomagnetic conditions late on November 13 due to arrival of the halo CME which erupted on November 10.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Nov 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	164
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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