Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 julio 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 JUL 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT WAS A CLASS M5 FLARE IN REGION 9090 (N11E06) AT 21/1430Z. REGION 9087 (S12W26) AND REGION 9090 HAVE PRODUCED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY, REGIONS 9087 AND 9090 ARE THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS TODAY; BOTH HAVE DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH WITH CLASS M FLARES LIKELY AND CLASS X FLARES POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED ON 19 JULY AND 20 JULY HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED AT THIS TIME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF EARLIER SOLAR ACTIVITY. ACE DATA INDICATE SOME STRUCTURES MAY STILL BE PROPAGATING IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS FOR UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 JUL a 24 JUL
Clase M85%80%75%
Clase X35%30%20%
Protón35%30%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 JUL 251
  Previsto   22 JUL-24 JUL  245/240/235
  Media de 90 Días        21 JUL 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL  028/043
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL  030/030-025/015-020/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 JUL a 24 JUL
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa22%12%12%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor40%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa27%22%12%

All times in UTC

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