Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 abril 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 03 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 093 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Several weak C-class events occurred throughout the period. Most flare activity was optically uncorrelated, however Regions 9887 (N02W02) and 9888 (S13E07) were both observed to produce C1/Sf events. New Region 9893 (N18E78) rotated into view and was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single active period was observed during 03/0300-0600 UTC, as coronal hole effects diminished, and quiet to unsettled conditions predominated thereafter. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit showed moderate enhancement today, but remained below event threshold.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Moderate to high flux of greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit is possible for the duration of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Apr a 06 Apr
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       03 Apr 209
  Previsto   04 Apr-06 Apr  208/208/205
  Media de 90 Días        03 Apr 203
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 02 Apr  010/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 03 Apr  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  008/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Apr a 06 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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