Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 marzo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Mar 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 77 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Mar 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
18/0321Z from Region 1698 (S19W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (19 Mar, 20
Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (21 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 702 km/s at 18/0049Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 17/2106Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2112Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2
pfu at 17/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 253 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar)
and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| Clase M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Mar 118 Previsto 19 Mar-21 Mar 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 18 Mar 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Mar 032/057 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Mar 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 009/008-008/008-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Mar a 21 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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