Viendo archivo del martes, 19 febrero 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 50 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1051Z from Region 1678 (N10W40). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
402 km/s at 19/1610Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/0105Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/1358Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (22 Feb).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Feb 112 Previsto 20 Feb-22 Feb 120/120/115 Media de 90 Días 19 Feb 115
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 011/012-012/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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