Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 julio 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Jul 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 196 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jul 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
15/1936Z from Region 2665 (S05W57). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul,
18 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 14/2231Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 14/2320Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 723 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 Jul), active to
major storm levels on day two (17 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (18 Jul). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (17
Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jul a 18 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 55% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jul 092 Previsto 16 Jul-18 Jul 092/092/090 Media de 90 Días 15 Jul 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jul 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 019/035-028/045-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jul a 18 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 79% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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