Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 julio 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Jul 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jul 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/0235Z from Region 2665 (S06W70). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and
likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 643 km/s at 16/2037Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 16/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 16/1040Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day
three (19 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jul 087 Previsto 17 Jul-19 Jul 085/080/074 Media de 90 Días 16 Jul 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jul 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 027/043 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 020/030-011/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jul a 19 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 80% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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