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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 21 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jan 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
21/1935Z from Region 3559 (N27E22). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 21/0246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/1441Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (22 Jan, 23
Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jan 179 Previsto 22 Jan-24 Jan 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 21 Jan 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 018/030-024/035-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jan a 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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