Viendo archivo del sábado, 17 febrero 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Feb 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 48 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Feb 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/2209Z from Region 3576 (S16W98). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb,
20 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 16/2318Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
17/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0224Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 17/0515Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Feb 170 Previsto 18 Feb-20 Feb 165/162/160 Media de 90 Días 17 Feb 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Feb 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 006/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Feb a 20 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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