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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Mar 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 81 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Mar 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/2255Z from Region 3615 (S12E39). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar,
24 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 21/1517Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 21/0241Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 21/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet levels
on day two (23 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Mar 197 Previsto 22 Mar-24 Mar 180/178/174 Media de 90 Días 21 Mar 162
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Mar 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Mar 019/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 012/015-005/005-011/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Mar a 24 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 05% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 10% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
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